Winning the CPU Wars: Apple's Triumph and Intel's Comeback
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APPLE SILICON
Who’s Winning The CPU Wars?
Everyone. Everywhere. All at once.
In late 2016, I purchased a 13-inch MacBook Pro equipped with an Intel Skylake processor, unaware it would be my last Mac laptop featuring an Intel CPU. This shift was primarily driven by Intel's struggles to uphold its tick-tock model of production, which includes die shrinks and microarchitecture advancements.
Intel's troubles began even before Skylake, with its previous 14nm Broadwell tick (die shrink) encountering issues following the 22nm Haswell tock (microarchitecture). A 2013 article from ArsTechnica noted the headline “BROADWELL UNWELL”:
During a recent earnings call, CEO Brian Krzanich mentioned slight delays in Broadwell CPU production due to manufacturing complications. Reports indicated a “defect density issue” in the new 14nm process led to disappointing yields, and initial fixes did not yield the anticipated improvements. Despite Krzanich's assurance that it was merely a “small blip in the schedule,” the situation was concerning.
These manufacturing challenges seemingly intensified with Skylake. Former Intel engineer François Piednoël revealed that Skylake’s inadequate quality assurance resulted in Apple having to report numerous bugs. This frustration may have prompted Apple to consider moving away from Intel CPUs:
> “We were getting way too much citing for little things, and basically Apple became the number-one filer of problems with the architecture. And that went really, really bad. When your customer starts finding almost as many bugs as you’ve identified, you’re not heading in the right direction.”
> “For me, this is the inflection point. This is when the Apple team, who were always contemplating a switch, finally decided, ‘We’ve probably got to do it’.”
> “Essentially, the poor quality assurance of Skylake forced them to abandon that platform.”
> “I think I witnessed this inflection about three years ago when they said, ‘Yeah, time to do it’.”
Worse than the quality control issues was Intel’s failure to transition from its 14nm process. From Broadwell through Skylake, Kaby Lake, Coffee Lake, Whiskey Lake, Comet Lake, and Rocket Lake, Intel continued to churn out 14nm CPUs for seven years. In contrast, Apple’s A-Series chips progressed from the 20nm A8 to the 5nm A14, showcasing significant advancements. Whatever the catalyst, Intel's continuous missteps made Apple's switch to its own silicon unavoidable.
APPLE WINS BIG
On November 10, 2020, Apple unveiled its M1 SoC for entry-level Macs. The MacBook Air’s Geekbench 5 scores skyrocketed from 1,127/2,944 for the Intel version released earlier to 1,678/7,225 with the M1. The M1 was not only powerful but also highly energy-efficient. According to Apple, it consumed significantly less energy than Intel-based PCs while delivering peak performance using only 25% of the power.
Eleven months after the M1's impressive launch, Apple introduced the M1 Pro and M1 Max chips, offering “up to 70 percent faster CPU performance than M1.” Just five months later, they released the Mac Studio featuring the M1 Ultra chip, which outperformed the Intel-based Mac Pro, the last remaining Intel Mac in the lineup.
Apple has begun its second generation of chips, unveiling the M2 in June, followed by M2 Pro and M2 Max in January. With rumors of an Apple silicon Mac Pro expected soon and TSMC’s forthcoming 3nm process secured, the future looks promising for Apple users.
A NON-ZERO-SUM GAME
At this point, it may seem I am claiming that Mac users are the sole beneficiaries of the CPU wars. However, similar to Amy Adams’ character in the 2016 film Arrival, we find ourselves in a non-zero-sum game. Intel clients do not have to suffer losses while Apple clients gain.
Intel continued to struggle until Apple silicon launched, but perhaps spurred by the loss of a major customer in such a disheartening manner, the company appointed Pat Gelsinger as its new CEO. Under his leadership, Intel's long-standing issues with its 10nm process were resolved, resulting in the production of more 10-nanometer wafers than 14-nanometer ones. Encouragingly, Alder Lake CPUs based on Intel's 7 process node began shipping shortly thereafter.
Intel's forward-looking roadmap revealed during its Q4 2022 earnings call indicated that Meteor Lake processors based on the Intel 4 process will debut in the latter half of this year. Furthermore, during a talk at the IEDM in December, Executive Vice President of Technology Development Ann Kelleher shared that Intel is poised to deliver its next four process nodes by 2025. This marks a remarkable turnaround in a short timeframe.
A RISING TIDE
The benefits of this extended technological rivalry extend beyond just Apple and Intel customers. AMD released its Zen 4 architecture-based Ryzen 7000 series CPUs on September 27, 2022. IBM unveiled the world’s first 2nm chip in May 2021 and is collaborating with Rapidus to produce 2nm chips in Japan. Samsung began 3nm chip production in June 2022. Qualcomm is set to launch next-gen Snapdragon CPUs next year, leveraging technology from ex-Apple engineers acquired through its purchase of Nuvia. It seems everyone is stepping up their game.
A BRAND NEW DAY
Following Intel's challenging decade, the Personal Computer CPU market has surprisingly emerged more robust than ever. I've personally experienced this with my recent acquisitions of an M2 Pro Mac mini and an i5–12500 (Alder Lake) Dell OptiPlex SFF Desktop. The Mac mini is twice as fast as the M1 MacBook Air it replaces, while the Dell OptiPlex outperforms the Acer Aspire Desktop it replaces by threefold. After years of mediocre upgrades, exceptional options are now available for purchasing new computers, and this trend appears likely to continue well into the future.
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For those interested in tech history, you can read about my journey on the StarLAN team at Bell Labs and how I transformed it into a successful software startup in Software Engineering: A Better Life.
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