# Weather Woes: The Rapid Onset of Deadly Climate Events
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Hurricane Otis caught many off guard. Meteorologists were still deliberating whether it was merely a strong storm when it swiftly transitioned into a catastrophic hurricane. The devastation was immense. In the early hours of late October 2023, it struck near Acapulco, decimating the popular tourist destination.
What made Otis particularly alarming was its rapid escalation from a tropical storm to a category five hurricane within a mere 24 hours—an unprecedented occurrence.
Otis wasn't alone; other weather phenomena have also quickly escalated into life-threatening situations.
> All three hurricanes underwent a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, with wind speeds increasing by at least 30 knots (approximately 35 mph) in just 24 hours. As global temperatures rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, the next few decades may witness hurricanes that intensify even more swiftly. For example, current research suggests that a 60-knot (70 mph) increase in wind speed within 24 hours is a rare event, occurring roughly once a century. Without a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this extreme intensification could happen every five to ten years by the year 2100. — Climate Central
Additionally, other weather events, like atmospheric rivers, have become increasingly common. Few are aware that these airborne water vapor plumes can deliver enough rain to flood cities to depths of 20 feet within hours.
> Research on atmospheric rivers has surged in the last thirty years, but predictions about storm landfalls can still be wildly inaccurate, sometimes by hundreds of miles. — The Guardian
What strikes me is how scientists and conservative media frequently state that these events will occur "by the year 2100." Given human nature, such distant timelines often fail to inspire urgent action in adapting to our changing world. The reality is that we are already experiencing a perilous era filled with unexpected weather events.
Climate Change Is Accelerating Faster Than Expected
New IPCC Report Signals Potentially Dire Consequences
More information can be found at www.nature.com.
The takeaway is clear: regardless of our location, we can unexpectedly face weather phenomena that have never impacted our area before. Historically, if such events occurred, we would typically have three days to a week of warning.
A piece in Scientific American discusses how tornadoes are shifting eastward, impacting regions that have never experienced them before. It’s a compelling read.
Over the past six months, I have encountered numerous statements from meteorological researchers indicating that climate change is escalating exponentially—something they had not previously anticipated. This means the pace of climate change is accelerating, leading to outcomes that are increasingly unpredictable.
Implications for Our Lives
After believing that Ireland was a relatively safe haven from climate change, I was startled to learn that meteorologists predict extreme weather events there as well. Specifically, Ireland will face increased rainfall and prolonged drought periods. This prompted me to investigate what constitutes a drought in Ireland.
It turns out that drought doesn't necessarily mean a complete lack of rain; it simply indicates a reduction in rainfall compared to the norm. There’s always something new to learn.
The challenge in forecasting weather in our region lies in scientists’ limited ability to predict extreme weather events in advance, making it difficult for us to prepare. For instance, while they can predict an increase in hurricane activity in Florida, they cannot foresee which previously unaffected areas will now experience such events. Tornadoes, for instance, are now occurring further east than ever before.
We will also become accustomed to meteorological terminology that was once foreign to us.
In essence, no matter where we reside, we cannot rule out the possibility of facing a massive atmospheric river that could inundate us with torrential rain. Just the day before, we might have been enjoying sunny weather.
It’s only a matter of time before major urban centers face flooding or destruction. If this can happen in Acapulco, home to over a million people, it can happen anywhere. Acapulco had never before experienced a storm of Otis's magnitude.
The Dangers of Desensitization
Humans have a mechanism that allows us to become desensitized to repeated traumatic events. I am aware of this from my upbringing in Africa.
For instance, I barely react to the poster below, which circulated in Johannesburg years ago, depicting a shaman seeking human body parts.
During my five years in Cape Town, I witnessed bizarre posters that would baffle a westerner. Over time, one becomes immune to such sights.
The same will happen with the multitude of disastrous weather events. Numerous cities around the globe are currently flooding on a weekly basis, and such news is no longer reported. Flood-list is an online platform that tracks significant floods worldwide, providing insight into the scale of the crisis we are currently overlooking. We become desensitized to distressing news.
Approaching Extinction Level Events
Eventually, the sheer volume of devastating weather events will overwhelm governmental responses, making repair and recovery efforts unfeasible. Insurance companies are already beginning to withdraw, recognizing that no amount of premium payments can cover the extensive damage caused by floods.
> The vast majority of California flood victims' losses won't be covered by insurance | CNN Business
Power grids may fail in certain regions, leading to increased mortality. Over time, the population may dwindle—not only due to weather-related destruction but also because essential services like healthcare, education, food, and water become increasingly compromised.
What troubles me is that this is a straightforward progression of logic. One problem leads to another, yet we continue to divert our attention to distractions like the Super Bowl, discussions about cosmetic enhancements, and scrolling through social media for entertainment.
Why do we engage in such behavior?
I believe many of us have resigned ourselves to the situation.
Perhaps we feel there is little more we can do.
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