Chapter 1: A Life-Altering Revelation

Amidst the rain drumming against the cold, towering windows, I found myself in London. While it's a vibrant city, its rainy days can cast a gloomy shadow. In the office's waiting area, numerous teams were preparing to present their business proposals. Clad in dark suits and carrying the quintessential Tumi laptop bags, we looked like a congregation of Agent Smith clones from The Matrix.

As I tried to calm my nerves before pitching the eight-figure proposal that my team had toiled over for months, an irritating sound interrupted my thoughts. My bag had tipped over, and my phone was buzzing its way to the floor, garnering annoyed glances from my fellow consultants.

Frustrated for not silencing it, I retrieved my phone, determined to refocus. However, my heart sank when I noticed 17 missed calls from Abraham, my childhood friend. The urgency was palpable.

To avoid disturbing others, I slipped outside into the pouring rain. A small group of smokers huddled beneath a porch, seeking refuge from the downpour. I maneuvered through the smoke cloud and found a relatively dry spot to call my friend. Little did I know, this conversation would change everything.

“Hey! What’s going on?” he asked, his voice tinged with unease.

“I’m in London pitching that project. Is everything okay?” I replied, sensing something was amiss.

“Yeah, I’m sorry to interrupt, but… I don’t know how to say this, so I’ll just come out with it. I’ve been diagnosed with terminal cancer. They say I have only a few months left.”

The rain pelting the porch felt like ice-cold water pouring over me. My friend continued talking, but his words faded into the background as shock enveloped me. This was my best friend, a dedicated emergency room doctor, burdened with student debt and responsibilities to his young family—he was facing death.

After he mentioned he would start chemotherapy and wanted to see me when I returned to the U.S., the call ended. I walked back inside, my mind reeling from the revelation. During my 15-minute pitch to the company representatives, I was distracted by the overwhelming sense of despair.

When I eventually saw Abraham back in Boston, he looked unwell and admitted he felt worse due to the grueling chemotherapy sessions. Fortunately, he was still alive to tell the tale. However, a surprise awaited us: the post-treatment results revealed that he had been misdiagnosed. No cancer, no chemotherapy—just a clean bill of health.

What!? Ecstatic at the news, I was left bewildered. How could such an error occur in today’s advanced medical landscape?

Driven by curiosity, I delved into the issue, uncovering that cancer misdiagnoses are surprisingly common. I discovered that various factors contribute to this, including cognitive biases in medical evaluations.

To illustrate, consider a scenario involving a rare virus that affects 0.1% of the population. If a test boasts 99% accuracy, one might assume a positive result means the person has the virus—an assumption that would be incorrect. The actual probability is only 9%. This highlights the importance of thorough testing, a vital lesson in understanding statistical probabilities.

As I continued my investigation, I was overwhelmed by the complexities of the topic. My search felt like a spiral into the Dunning-Kruger effect, where I realized how little I truly knew.

This fixation on the misdiagnosis haunted me for months, yet it led me to a significant revelation that transformed my approach to consulting. I stumbled upon a risk management strategy known as "tail-risk hedging," utilized by successful hedge funds and investment banks. It became clear that those who avoided high-risk scenarios were the ones who thrived, especially during market downturns like the 2008 crash.

This journey introduced me to the field of complexity theory. Traditionally, management consultants tackle problems assuming organizations function as linear systems. This reductionist approach involves breaking down issues into manageable parts, resolving them separately, and then reassembling them. While effective to an extent, this method often fails to capture the intricacies of modern organizations.

My friend’s experience was a wake-up call. Organizations are complex systems, meaning their behavior emerges from interactions rather than individual components. Examples include ecosystems, social networks, and even the human brain. Understanding these systems requires a holistic view rather than a fragmented one.

For instance, consider the human body, where individual components can malfunction and affect overall health. Take depression: it can stem from chemical imbalances or other factors like trauma or lifestyle choices. A singular treatment approach may not suffice, illustrating the need for a nuanced understanding of complex systems.

As I explored systems thinking as an alternative to conventional management techniques, the results were remarkable. Not only did I achieve better outcomes as a consultant, but the stability of these results also improved.

The shocking journey with my closest friend—initially disheartening but ultimately uplifting—propelled me into the realm of complexity theory and risk management. This transformation reshaped my perspective on both personal challenges and my approach to consultancy, enhancing the way we deliver services by acknowledging the intricacies of our clients' businesses.

If you're interested in applying systems thinking within your organization, I invite you to explore my other articles for deeper insights, including:

• How to Apply Systems Thinking in Running and Managing a Business
• How to Think in Complex Systems

Chapter 2: Embracing Crisis as Opportunity

In the TEDx talk "How cancer saved my life – Why crisis is an opportunity," Giulia Muntoni shares her personal journey, illustrating how a crisis can lead to unexpected growth and transformation.

In "Cancer Diagnosis Altered the Direction of My Life," Nur Choudhury discusses how a cancer diagnosis can shift one’s life perspective, emphasizing resilience and the power of change.