The Second Space Race has begun, marked by fierce competition among major powers for vital space resources. Today, we have Dr. Namrata Goswami, an independent expert in International Relations and co-author of the recently published book "Scramble for the Skies," to discuss the economic aspirations driving this race and the global players aiming to take the lead in this new frontier.

Tim: Welcome, Namrata! To start, could you share your background and what motivated you to specialize in International Relations and the space sector?

Namrata: Thanks, Tim. I appreciate the introduction. Growing up in Northeast India, my father was a historian with a deep interest in world politics, and his extensive library influenced my early understanding of global affairs. We often discussed significant topics like WWII and the effects of colonization in India, which ignited my passion for political science and international relations from a young age.

Continuing my education, I pursued a Bachelor's in Political Science with a focus on international relations, followed by a Master's in Politics and Public Administration. To deepen my expertise, I obtained a Ph.D. in International Organization from Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, concentrating on conflict resolution. This long journey laid the foundation for my current work.

Tim: Let's discuss your book, "Scramble for the Skies," co-authored with former USAF Chief Futurist Peter Garretson. It explores the emerging Second Space Race among China, the United States, and India. Can you provide an overview?

Namrata: The book's inception stemmed from a Minerva grant application that Peter and I submitted to the U.S. Department of Defense, alongside a presentation I gave on China's space program at an International Studies Association Conference. Roman and Littlefield expressed interest, which allowed us to expand our research into a comprehensive examination of the evolving discourse on space.

We argue that during the Cold War, space was primarily a battleground of ideological competition, characterized by technological achievements and national pride. However, the contemporary view of space is shifting towards creating sustainable human habitats and generating economic wealth.

Initially, this perspective emerged from academic discussions and subsequently transitioned into policy dialogues, leading to the development of various programs. We also scrutinized the influence of middle powers like the UAE and Luxembourg in shaping space policy through the United Nations.

Our book begins with a thorough analysis of data gathered from fieldwork in China and India, involving discussions with policymakers, academics, and space scientists. We integrated these findings with research on domestic policies and technology trends to project potential future scenarios concerning space commercialization.

Tim: You mentioned that your project began with a Minerva Grant, focusing on China and India’s space strategies. What insights did you gain from that analysis?

Namrata: The Minerva Grant was crucial, facilitating our fieldwork. Prior to that, I conducted a literature review on the long-term objectives articulated by Chinese space policymakers and institutions. I examined the policy and technology roadmaps from the China National Space Administration and the China Academy of Space Technologies, drawing insights from various Chinese publications.

From this research, three key insights emerged regarding China and India. First, China views space strategically with an eye toward 2049, the centennial of the People's Republic of China. President Xi has emphasized that space exploration is crucial for demonstrating the party's success.

Second, unlike democratic nations like the U.S. and India, China can allocate resources for long-term projects. The Chinese Lunar Exploration Program was discussed as early as 2002, showcasing their commitment to establishing a presence on the moon.

Third, China is approaching space with a clear economic strategy, projecting significant returns from lunar resources. Their success in previous missions signals that they take their stated goals seriously.

India, while ambitious, has a shorter-term focus. Their plans for lunar bases, Mars missions, and asteroid mining are notable, yet less comprehensive than China's long-term vision.

Tim: You assert in "Scramble for the Skies" that the Second Space Race for essential resources is already in progress. What key resources are currently attracting attention?

Namrata: Helium-3 is a pivotal resource on the lunar surface that nations like Japan and India are interested in, primarily for its potential in nuclear fusion. Water ice, crucial for life support and propulsion, is another significant focus. Additionally, the moon contains rare-earth minerals such as titanium, platinum, and iron ore, which are increasingly sought after.

China is approaching lunar resources from a strategic viewpoint, aiming for a foothold at the lunar South Pole, which promises access to resources like water and solar power.

The competition ignited in the U.S. by thinkers like Paul Spudis has been influential. He emphasized the necessity of self-sustainability for humanity's future in space, a concept that China has embraced.

In response to China's ambitions, the U.S. has ramped up its own space policy, culminating in initiatives like the Trump administration's Space Policy Directives and the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, which allows American citizens to claim resources in space.

This newfound interest in space commercialization has prompted many nations to engage in discussions about lunar prospecting and resource utilization, leading to what we term a scramble for space resources.

Tim: NASA plans to land the "first woman and next man on the moon" in 2024 and establish a lunar gateway for exploration. Will the competition in space begin to shift from Earth orbit to lunar endeavors in the coming years?

Namrata: The emphasis is already transitioning from low-Earth orbit to lunar and beyond. For example, China aims to establish a lunar research base by 2036, while Russia has announced plans for a lunar base post-2025.

Over the next decade, I foresee a surge in commercial development driven by private sector innovations in resource manufacturing and robotics, setting the stage for human settlements.

We're also on the brink of advancements in solar power transmission from space. China is actively developing technology for microwave energy transmission, and the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory is exploring similar initiatives.

Tim: Regarding Mars colonization and asteroid mining, Elon Musk has expressed his ambitious vision for establishing a city on Mars by 2050. What are your thoughts on these endeavors and the expected timeline for shifting competition beyond the moon?

Namrata: Between 2035 and 2040, we can anticipate a shift in focus from lunar endeavors to asteroid mining and Mars colonization. Musk's vision is certainly audacious, but his track record suggests he could achieve what many deem impossible.

For instance, the development of reusable rockets was once thought unfeasible until companies like SpaceX demonstrated otherwise. I believe that by 2035 to 2040, the technology for asteroid mining and Mars colonization will be in place.

Before that, the U.S. and other nations will likely continue exploring Mars with ongoing missions, including those from China and India, indicating a growing interest in Martian exploration beyond the traditional great powers.

Tim: Let's discuss the U.S. Space Force. Given the increased commercial activity and colonization plans, do you agree with your co-author Pete Garretson's idea of a "Blue Water" role for the Space Force to safeguard commerce and resource access?

Namrata: This is a pertinent question as the role of the U.S. Space Force is a topic of active debate. Their recently published doctrine emphasizes maintaining situational awareness in low-Earth orbit while also addressing cislunar space.

From a strategic standpoint, both roles are vital. The Space Force must not only focus on cislunar operations but also protect terrestrial infrastructure like GPS and communications. The military's overarching responsibility has always been about ensuring security.

The U.S. Space Force's potential future involvement in securing lunar and Martian settlements is crucial, paralleling the roles played by navies in protecting maritime commerce.

Tim: With rising concerns about China's military capabilities in space, should we be worried about the potential for space-based weapons or attacks?

Namrata: Indeed, the prospect of space-based threats is concerning. The potential for nations to weaponize space technologies, including EMPs and dual-use capabilities, cannot be overlooked.

China's advancements in space, such as deploying robotic arms for debris removal, could also serve dual purposes, including potentially disabling adversary satellites. This illustrates the complexities of militarization in space.

As nations like China, Russia, and India develop anti-satellite capabilities, the risk of space-based weapons escalates, necessitating vigilance on the part of all nations engaged in space activities.

Tim: The establishment of the Space Force seems to acknowledge that space is no longer a "safe haven." Is it fair to say that this reflects the reality of existing militarization rather than an effort to create it?

Namrata: There's often confusion between weaponization and militarization. While many nations have signed treaties prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space, militarization has already occurred through the use of space for military applications such as navigation and surveillance.

The Space Force was created not to militarize space but to coordinate various governmental efforts and ensure our security needs in space are effectively addressed.

Leaders in the military community have emphasized that the Space Force's focus should be on ensuring safe navigation and commerce in space, rather than initiating conflict.

Tim: As we wrap up, what does the future hold for you after the release of your book on October 15th?

Namrata: That's an excellent question! While I'm looking forward to a vacation post-release, I've already been approached for a new book on China's grand strategy and its territorial ambitions, including in space.

This next project will explore China's focus on resource-rich territories and its ambitions in space, raising questions about the normative frameworks that may emerge. President Xi's goal for China to lead in space by 2049 reflects a broader strategy that could significantly impact global geopolitics.