A Quick Overview of the Colorado River Situation

The last major agreement regarding the allocation of Colorado River water was established in 2007, intended to remain effective until 2026. This plan mandated reductions across all seven states and Mexico. However, by 2015, it became clear that these cuts were insufficient as the drought persisted.

In response, the states collaborated on the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) in 2019, aiming to prevent the lakes from reaching a "dead pool" status, where hydropower generation ceases due to insufficient water. In 2022, the federal government declared a Tier 1 shortage, and with conditions worsening, a Tier 2 shortage will begin on January 1, 2023, leading to substantial water reductions.

The DCP's main objective is to minimize withdrawals from the Colorado River downstream of Lake Mead. Currently, Lake Mead's level stands at 1,045 feet above sea level, which is merely 26% of its capacity. Experts warn that it could fall to dead pool status by July 2024.

Lake Powell, upstream from Lake Mead, is at 23% capacity, marking its lowest level since it was filled in 1963. It will reach dead pool when it dips to 3,370 feet above sea level.

The severe water shortages in the lower Colorado basin will inevitably lead to reduced agricultural water usage, impacting food prices in an already inflation-affected economy. Meanwhile, livestock ranchers face rising feed costs due to drought conditions, causing herd sizes to plummet in states like New Mexico and Texas.

The 1922 Colorado River Compact, which governs water distribution among the states, was based on wet years and has become increasingly outdated. It allocated water rights without accounting for current drought conditions, leading to disputes as states struggle to meet their needs.

Climate change is a significant factor exacerbating this crisis. There have been more La Niña years since 2000, leading to warmer temperatures and decreased precipitation in the Southwest, while El Niño typically brings wetter conditions.

The Colorado River and Its Lakes

With government mandates pushing for reduced water usage from the Colorado River, intense debates have emerged over which states should shoulder the greatest burden. The Upper Basin states argue that the Lower Basin states should take the majority of the cuts, while population growth in Arizona, California, and Nevada complicates the matter.

Denver, in the Upper Basin, is seeking additional water sources to support its growth, proposing pipelines that contradict the government's conservation efforts. As Kevin Wheeler from Oxford University notes, existing reductions must remain in place until the drought subsides and reservoirs recover.

Originally designed to support Lake Mead, Lake Powell now finds itself unable to meet its obligations. The snowpack's health directly affects river flow, with potential drops in water levels threatening power supplies for millions, including the Navajo Nation.

By 2023, as the Tier 2 shortage begins, the seven states must devise a strategy to conserve 2–4 million acre-feet of water annually. California, with senior water rights, will avoid cuts, placing the burden on Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico, which raises significant contention.

The prospect of large sections of the Colorado River running dry highlights the urgency for a cooperative agreement. The ecological ramifications could be dire, potentially altering the landscape of the Grand Canyon.

“It's really hard to make predictions, especially about the future” ~ Yogi Berra

Nevada's Water Management

Nevada, having the smallest population share in the original Colorado Compact, receives the least water allocation. The Southern Nevada Water Authority has implemented stringent water restrictions, including prohibiting outdoor watering on Sundays and during peak daylight hours.

As the driest state in the U.S., Nevada has adapted to scarcity, employing water patrols to enforce conservation efforts. Most indoor water in Las Vegas is recycled, but outdoor consumption remains a challenge.

With rapid population growth projected, concerns over Nevada's water usage persist. The current population of Clark County is approximately 2.4 million, expected to rise to 3.38 million by 2060, with North Las Vegas growing significantly in the coming years.

As we wrap up this discussion, the focus will soon shift to the water conflicts likely to arise in Arizona and California, where intense competition for water resources is anticipated.

Sources for this series include: - Arizona Republic, 8/16/2022 - East Valley Tribune (Mesa), 5/15/2022 - Arizona Republic, 5/19/2022 - Arizona Republic, 5/4/2022 - Arizona Republic, 5/7/2022 - University of Nevada Center for Business and Economic Research, 3/3/2022 - KTNV Las Vegas-abc 13 - KSNV Las Vegas-NBC 3 - The Guardian, 10/2/2022 - Arizona Republic, 10/3/2022

For additional context on the crisis in the American Southwest, consider reading the following articles:

• Fire and Rain: The Summer That’s Been, And What’s In Store

  A Southwest Regional Roundup of the Megadrought

  [medium.com](http://medium.com)

• 6 Of The Most Unsustainable Cities, Analyzed

  Turn off the Water When You’re Brushing Your Teeth!

  [medium.com](http://medium.com)

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