In the aftermath of Cyclone Sidr's floods in 2007, a father lost his ancestral home and sought refuge on a higher Char river island. However, the catastrophic floods of 2015 obliterated that sanctuary as well, compelling the family to migrate to Dhaka in search of safety.

Survival remains an arduous challenge in Bangladesh's lowlands.

On August 21, 2024, heavy rains and a surge from a dam in India’s Tripura state (later denied by the Indian government) led to severe flooding that impacted 5.7 million people and left 1.24 million families stranded across 11 districts in northeastern and southeastern Bangladesh. This disaster marked one of the most severe flood events in recent memory, with increasing fatalities and the looming threat of waterborne illnesses.

In this grim context, a father faces an unimaginable decision — to marry his 15-year-old daughter to an older man who can provide resources.

“If marrying her off means one less mouth to feed, what other choice do I have?” This haunting dilemma resonates with many fathers in similar situations.

This situation transcends anger, greed, or selfishness: child marriage has emerged as a survival strategy for families in distress. Tragically, countless girls in Bangladesh’s disaster-affected areas witness their aspirations swept away by the very floods that have taken their homes.

A Nation on the Brink

The effects of climate change are universally acknowledged, with no region spared. However, experts indicate that Asia is particularly vulnerable, facing both natural disasters and widespread human suffering. South and Southeast Asia are among the globe’s most flood-prone regions.

According to the 2023 World Risk Index, Bangladesh ranks as the ninth most susceptible country to climate-related disasters. Although monsoon floods have long plagued this delta nation, their frequency and severity have escalated in recent years. Rising sea levels along the country’s 710-kilometer coastline are driving people into urban areas. Projections suggest that by 2050, Bangladesh may lose 17% of its land and 30% of its agricultural space, displacing one in seven residents. This is not a future threat but an ongoing emergency.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that nearly 15 million Bangladeshis were displaced between 2014 and 2023, predominantly due to storms (10.3 million) and floods (4.3 million). The years 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023 were particularly devastating, with over a million displaced each year, exceeding 4 million in both 2019 and 2020.

Every day, approximately 2,000 individuals migrate from coastal regions to Dhaka, where four million people reside in 5,000 slums, 70% of whom are there due to natural disasters and climate change.

The most significant toll is borne by young girls.

A Deeper Impact

Under the Child Marriage Restraint Act (1929), the legal marriage age in Bangladesh is 18 for females and 21 for males.

However, the reality is starkly different.

UNICEF reports that Bangladesh has the highest rates of child marriage in South Asia and ranks eighth globally. A Save the Children report identifies Bangladesh among the top ten nations where climate change heightens the risk of child marriage.

A 2020 study indicated that girls aged 11–14 are twice as likely to marry following climate-related disasters like floods and cyclones. An International Rescue Committee (IRC) study from 2022 noted a 39% increase in child marriages directly linked to climate change, highlighting that post-disaster, girls often face increased domestic responsibilities, limiting their access to education and leading families to view marriage as a viable solution.

Additionally, a 2023 report from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics revealed that at least 41.6% of women were married before age 18, with this proportion rising over the years: 40.9% in 2022, 32.4% in 2021, and 31.3% in 2020.

The ramifications extend far beyond visible destruction.

Families that have lost homes and crops not only face property loss but an overwhelming struggle for survival. Many are unable to meet basic needs such as sanitation and clean water. In such dire circumstances, marrying off daughters becomes a coping strategy.

This issue is especially pronounced for girls in coastal areas, where saltwater intrusion exacerbates frequent disasters, further jeopardizing their futures.

The Invisible Challenge

A study by the Bangladesh Soil Resource Institute found that 53% of coastal regions now contend with high salinity in their water, resulting from rising sea levels and shrimp farming. This severely restricts access to fresh water, causing impoverished young girls to consume saline water regularly.

The consequences of saline water consumption extend beyond taste; they trigger serious health issues that manifest when girls reach 18 to 20 years of age, including skin diseases, hair loss, and darkening skin. The situation worsens when these women in their 20s exhibit these health issues, often leading to abandonment by their husbands in favor of younger brides, forcing them to return to their parents with children.

Moreover, the unavailability of sanitary pads compels women and girls in these coastal regions to use cloth. “More than 80% of adolescent girls in coastal Bangladesh use old clothes during their menstrual periods, which they wash in saltwater before reusing. This practice is extremely harmful to their uterine health,” states Wahida Zaman Shithi from Noora Health, citing the Bangladesh National Hygiene Baseline Survey. With rising salinity, girls are forced to use pills to delay menstruation due to inadequate menstrual hygiene solutions, which can lead to infertility over time.

This vicious cycle of floods, increased salinity, and health consequences drives desperate parents to marry off their daughters at younger ages, fearing they will become burdens later.

The Contemporary Human Experience

I reside in Argentina’s Lake District in northwest Patagonia — often considered a “climate haven,” with sufficient latitude and altitude to evade extreme heat and isolation from stormy coastlines, historically enjoying a stable humidity balance. However, last winter brought five months of record rainfall, followed by severe droughts and destructive wildfires.

I appreciate living in such a location, surrounded by friends, mountains, and lakes that shield us from… ourselves. Yet, the concept of a “climate heaven” is now obsolete.

The reality is that climate change is transforming once-rare extreme events — often described as MEGA occurrences — into commonplace realities. Regardless of location, expect more frequent and severe phenomena and epidemics. The world now appears to be characterized by tail risks.

Consider other types of tail risks: the “political tail risk” of a fascist movement rising to cause havoc once a century, or the “social tail risk” where extremism is no longer exceptional but pervasive, radicalizing the masses.

This embodies tail risk — the transformation of rare extremes into the new standard.

Meanwhile, the climate crisis unfolds in real-time. The Earth’s climate system is enduring a series of relentless blows. Each year, the months surrounding the solstice feel like an endurance test that intensifies. For 13 consecutive months (and some suggest the streak persists), the planet has recorded unprecedented temperatures, from the hottest year (2023) to the hottest month (July 2023) to the hottest day (July 22, 2024).

For millions of years, a delicately balanced planetary system governed by multi-millennial changes in the Earth’s spin and orbit regulated temperature patterns. This system has been abruptly disrupted by the release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere within just over a century. We have yet to discover how to produce food or essential materials like concrete, steel, glass, and plastic without relying on carbon-intensive fossil fuels.

This is our opportunity to reimagine a system driven by relentless growth at any cost. I remain an optimist — but a realistic one. Optimism means believing our actions can incite change. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer states, there’s a distinction between complacent and conditional optimism. The former resembles a child waiting for a present, while the latter is akin to a child planning to build a treehouse, gathering materials and friends to create something extraordinary.

While we document “unprecedented,” “uncharted,” and “unpredictable” occurrences, the world simultaneously embarks on remarkable innovations. Last year, renewable energy capacity surged by 50%. A new report indicates that wind and solar power are expanding faster than any energy source in history, even outpacing fossil fuels. Signs suggest that 2023 marked the peak of global emissions, thanks to the growth of renewable energy. Now, we must expedite this decline, racing against the physics of global warming.

It is a critical time. Climate change is displacing people globally. Nations like Bangladesh, which contribute negligible emissions yet demonstrate remarkable resilience, urgently require cooperation to address the relentless impacts and disasters stemming from climate change. We await to see if COP29 provides meaningful relief after COP28’s significant shortcomings. The plight of this delta nation is undeserved.

Yet, the conclusion of this narrative is far from finalized.

So, let your voice be heard.

Thank you for your careful reading and support!

*Subscribe* for timely insights and join the 900+ Antarctic Sapiens community for weekly content.